Monday, April 13, 2009

Pakistan Passes Shari'a Law For Most of the Northwest Frontier Province

I think this would be cause for Ace's mushroom cloud graphic, I'll have to find a way to make something like it.

I want to say "head in the sand" but I honestly can't propose what else the government should do. They've attempted to root the Taliban out with their vastly larger conventional military but every campaign has been mired down into a mess in the mountains.  Throwing more money at Pakistan won't do anything as the only way to make their military capable of doing counterinsurgency would be to train them (and we can't do that as it would lead to further protests and decreased indigenous support).  

I think in the medium term this is a good move for the Pakistani government.  It has such a thin hold on stability at the moment (although, I'm suspicious of anything Hagel and Kerry worked on together, see article).  For it to try to continue on in its war would further show its incompetence leading to more fissures that could crack the country apart.  As I mentioned before, I see Pakistan as the center of gravity for the continued war in Afghanistan (and the war on terror in Central Asia?).  

Therefore I think the question is whether the civilian government would be further weakened by trying to maintain this cease-fire and allowing for Shari'a to ravage the countryside, or would it be better to continue fighting?  Both options have long strings of failures.  

But I think the Government should try to push for the ceasefire.  The one good thing about "most" of Pakistan is that it has relatively large population that isn't fundamentalist and activist (especially after the lawyer protests over reinstating the Supreme Court Justice and against Musharaf).  The population needs to feel that the war against the Taliban is not America's war but their own and that the Taliban is a greater menace than the Indian Army. Thus, I think its better for the government to try to pass numerous peaceful measures knowing they will be violated by the Taliban.  Each failure however, makes a "plan of peace" by the government such an utter failure that either this one or its successors will demand much more bolder and forceful action.  


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