Iran is going to be one of the cases in which we weigh the effects of Soft Power pressure and the speedier results garnered by Hard/military power. The IAEA firmly rebuked Iran yesterday over its Nuclear program. The censure showed a lack of patience that Iran's friends have for the psuedo Rogue state and also increases the legitimacy of sanctions even further down the line, military action.
Although the nytimes doesn't think it is very likely that Russia will get on board for sanctions, there have been signs that they Russian may. This might be one of the few positive consequences for the removal of the Anti-Ballistic-Shield. The lack of full response by the Russians is indicative of the precarious situation they find themselves in diplomatically and a lack of full measured committment for sanctions is logical when they're unsure how far Obama wants to take this. The European position is fixed (England, France, Germany being the only heroes in this process), Russia wavering, China probably unwilling to support sanctions (but I doubt they will stand alone in vetoing sanctions if it comes to a vote in the Security Council), this leaves US. Obama needs to be the one to take the initiative. He has the diplomatic room to wait on his one year deadline for negotiations but I think the humiliating loss by the Iranian rejection of his Uranium shipment proposal leaves him with few options.
I think the disjointed leadership within Iran will make any concessions impossible as the fundamentalists in the military that Ahmadinejad uses as his clientalist allies have firmly rejected accomadation. Thus, new sanctions will inevitably be used. The only question on this front is how far will Russia participate.
Iran will take any sanctions placed against it as a propaganda ploy for people to "stand against the west" but with their already threatened legitimacy at stake following this years elections; the question will be how far is the theocracy willing to compensate deteriorating conditions with force? We immediately think force internally, but it will also be used in an increasingly aggressive bellicose stance against Israel and the US. If the people tolerate the of wealth that accompany sanctions and the repression of the regime than an Israeli attack is the only possible conclusion to this scenario.
Reading those links you just wonder what these people thinking. I mean, there is no doubt at all, even to people not possessing brains, that the Iranian leadership is just stringing everyone along, buying time for themselves. It's just a fact. I have always thought that these statements from western governments like the Iranian agreement to ship uranium to Russia, or whatever were meant more for their own people's consumption than something to be actually believed by leadership of Western governments themselves. Melkor, you're in with the upper levels of our State department (I think I saw you crashing one of Obama's parties). Does a single one of those people you know believe any overture the Iranian government makes to the West?
ReplyDeleteI had to laugh at this statement in one of the links:
"The U.S. has yet to significantly push its own allies to begin taking steps against Iran, arguing that Iran should be given more time. "We're headed towards crunch time on Iran in the next few months," said a Middle East diplomat involved in Iran diplomacy."
Yeah, we've been saying that since the middle of GWB's reign. No one's doing anything. Is there any doubt? I imagine Israel will do something eventually. But, the US? Europe? Russia?
I don't know much about this. I do know that soft power is just that, soft. Soft power and sanctions led to North Korea having the capability they do, which I guess is not much.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how China or Russia will go along with any sanctions. I guess if the sanctions are tough enough it could drive the people to force regime change. But Obama already showed the people how he feels about their freedom by remaining basically silent. I don't know if the people would be willingly to rise up with out the support of the world. Russia and China are key and they don't have America's long term interest at heart.
An air attack by Israel will only delay Iran from getting nukes.
The leader just gave the world a middle finger up at the last world meeting, whatever it was called.
I don't think a major war will happen, so I think Iran will eventually get the nukes, and that will change the world. I guess history just repeats itself, a crazy dictator being appeased by the world. But maybe sanctions and tough talk will force Iran to cave in. I don't know all the many complex details of that stuff.
Israel is definitely the people that are going to have to finish this if the Iranian people don't. That's my assessment. Write more later.
ReplyDelete