Since I know nothing about the current nominee for the Supreme Court, I will speak on something I feel confident about and also something which surprised me: the N. Korean atomic test.
I think this is so wide spread in the news, no links are necessary.
Anyway, I think North Korea is going to add an interesting National Security threat for the administration. To begin with, they've already cowered before when North Korea launched their first missile earlier in April and now we've seen an increased threat (and after South Korea joined Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative, increased their bellicose rhetoric). It's clear that this is all posturing for alms. But I think there's a unique opportunity here. North Korea's test seems to be in defiance in the face of their traditional allies (Russia/China) and while its likely that the Security Council won't come up with anything policy wise that will disable the North Korean security program, what's important is that I think it gives the administration an opportunity to stand opposed to the Bush administration and NOT give N.Korea energy aid with international support (or at least, without opposition from key actors).
We can't expect a military strike to take out N. Korean facilities, but we can strengthen the noose around the North Koreans by further isolating them. And hopefully, if another Tae-Po-Dong is launched, the Messiah will have the gall to shoot it down and show the utter impotence of the North Korean regime.
Since I have been watching news, I remember during the Clinton era the world tried to use sanctions to prevent North Korea from gaining nuclear weapons and that did not not worked. They just took the aid and went on ahead with their nuclear program I am not advocating war or anything; but eventually, I think something more substantial than sanctions will have to be done.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I understand NK is looking for aid. Like a little kid stomping his feet or crying for attention. "Posturing for alms."
The issue is complex. Without foreign aid NK would likely implode. I know China is not likely to impose strict sanctions against NK. I think China provides 80% of the foreign aid that NK receives. China would be the one dealing with the fallout and consequences of NK imploding: they would have a bunch of North Koreans coming across the boarder, and America would likely have to step in NK and take action in some way so they would likely have a Americans at their doorstep, something they don't want. NK is a chess piece for China like Japan is a chess piece for America.
I think it took about a week for the UN to write a statement declaring the world's dissatisfaction with NK. So I think the UN is worthless here.
Hopefully the world will be able to come together and force NK to abandon its nuclear program. If not, America will have to have the fortitude to do what is necessary. I think NK is getting close to becoming a serious threat that requires substantial action, and I don't know how long the world will allow NK to develop the ability to fire a nuclear missile at any target they please.
Talking about China, from what I have read I don't think they have America's best interest at heart.http://uk.reuters.com/article/usPoliticsNews/idUKTRE54363X20090504
Sanctions do work. North Korea is starving and on the verge of imploding. Any more sanctions than they already have would devastate their country. I don't think you realize how desperate they are and how serious it would be to them to have more sanctions imposed. I am very hesitant to go in to another military conflict right now. Although, if we were to intercept any ships bound for NK then this could easily provoke an aggressive response.
ReplyDeleteNice photo. Is that from a spy satellite? I wonder what Kim's game is? Outside of being so paranoid (and rightfully so) that he needs to keep the threat of attack so high to divert the peoples attention from their pitiful state.
ReplyDeleteI think we should have shot down his recent missile test, but I don't think we should do anything to retaliate against the nuke explosion unless S. Korea and/or Japan are fully involved. They are the most threatened by Kim and if they don't want to do anything, then I don't think we should be taking on full responsibility here. Unlike Iraq or Iran, which could dominate the world's oil supplies, Kim can't do anything to affect the world's economy outside of a direct attack on someone. If he's caught dealing nuke secrets, or selling uranium, or trying to get someone to set off a nuke for him, or whatever, we should nail him hard. But for now, let Japan and S Korea call the shots. I don't understand why they don't want us to do anything, but if they don't, so be it.
I did confuse sanctions with foreign aid. America gave foreign aid to NK during the Clinton years and NK went ahead developing nuclear weapons anyways. I think recently Bush gave foreign aid to NK to stop developing their nuclear capability.
ReplyDeleteSanctions can be effective. My point was that China is not willing to impose any meaningful sanctions due to the reasons stated above. China provides most of NK's food and energy. So if they are not willing to stop providing aid to NK then any other sanctions imposed by the world will have no major effect. So I don't see how that America imposing sanctions without China doing the same will have much effect. They do now have nuclear capability along with the ability to possibly strike America's allies and bases in the region.
They have a change of leadership coming up so this might change things or might be the reason for their recent actions.
I guess it all hinges on China willing to help and finding a way to deal with the effects of the collapse of the NK government.
This is what I gather from what I have read and heard in the news. I could be reading the situation wrong.
Foreign aid, sanctions, and talk have not prevented a nuclear North Korea.
ReplyDeleteIf something is not done now, sanctions or other action, then NK will have the ability to put nuclear weapons at America's allies or possibly America. They will likely sell their technology to Iran and terrorist. Eventually, America will have to become involved in some way or the other.
I heard the ideal on the news of arming Japan with missiles. This would force the Chinese to recalculate the situation with NK.
Either way NK is a nuclear power now. I guess we have to see how the world will respond.
I certainly don't advocate an attack on North Korea and there's nothing much left to "sanction" for the regime, the only we can really do is to not deliver further energy and food aid. That's tantamount to "sanctions." Chinese subsidies alone cannot a regime stabilize. Energy for the west is critical.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with the entire situation is that if the regime does feel like its about to collapse or that its survival is truly in jeopardy (i.e. ending of aid), it would make sense at that point to launch an attack in the gamble that something might lead to their survival post-war. It is this calculus that has kept American administrations willing to furnace fuel for North Korea to stay quiet (as in the long run, our weapons improve while they fade into obsolescence). Thus, the debate here is whether to cut off aid or not.
The only true actors that are the proper authority of whether or not we should follow this course is (or, are the risks worth it), as Bud-D said, South Korea and Japan.
Get out of here with your expensive private school talk.
ReplyDeleteDamn intellectuals have never sweat for a dollar in their lives.
Melkor's talk is above my head on this foreign policy stuff.
ReplyDeleteTalk, foreign aid , and sanctions have lead the world to where it is in regards to the NK situation, a country lead by a crazy dictator armed with nuclear weapons.
I read an article saying that sanctions would only be symbolic without participation from China. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE54Q5PO20090527
So somehow getting China to have a vested interest in putting meaningful sanctions on NK is where the focus should be. Maybe arming Japan.
Eventually America will be threatened and held hostage by a nuclear armed NK, unless sanctions can work and stop them from developing further capability, so America should be involved and not only looking towards SK or Japan on how we should act. If America would have been a leader and not gone the appeasement route, there would be no nuclear armed NK. But then what would have been the consequences of that? Maybe not good.
NK will eventually be selling the nuclear secrets and material to terrorist or rogue states. Unless they have seize a ships but then they could just fly through China, I got that from the article I read above.
Diplomacy is above my head. Looks like no good out come to me. Would have been better to have not allowed NK to become a nuclear power in the first place. Foreign aid, appeasement, doesn't work. Hopefully the world can talk and sanction its way would of this situation without any other action and agree on the proper course of action with the involvement of China and other key players.
I say just blow them way. But that is the over simplistic way to handle and look at the situation.