Tuesday, December 15, 2009

An update on the increase of the national debt limit and some facts about the national debt.

Back in August the Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit due to the massive amount of debt that the Country is acquiring due to the recession and the massive amount of government spending that is taking place under the guise of helping the economy to come out of the recession. The time has come for Congress to raise the national debt limit which has been increased twice since 2002, "House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said Friday that Congress needs to raise the limit by at least $1.8 trillion". This would be the largest increase in to the national debt limit in the history of our.

The Heritage Foundation has done a quick run down on the national debt,

Why the Debt and the Debt Limit Matter
  • $12,000,000,000,000: The total federal debt has reached a whopping $12 trillion. About $7.6 trillion is debt held by the public, which has been borrowed from citizens and foreign countries, and $4.4 trillion is debt held by the government, which has been borrowed primarily from the Social Security trust fund.
  • Debt Is Earning Interest That Taxpayers Must Pay: Public debt holders are paid annual interest from the federal budget, which must be paid with taxpayer dollars. In 2009 interest payments amounted to $209 billion.
  • Too Much Debt Will Slow the Economy: Government borrowing reduces resources available for private investment, leading to lower productivity, wages, and economic growth.
  • Only Getting Worse: The recession and excessive spending have caused the debt held by the public to grow sharply to 56% of the economy, topping the historical average of 36%. To make matters worse, entitlement programs will double in size over the next few decades and cause the national debt to reach 320% of the economy.[Emphasise mine]
  • Raising the Debt Limit: Congress will vote to determine the limit for the federal debt, which currently stands at $12.1 trillion. Since the national debt has hit $12 trillion, Congress plans to raise the debt limit.

Congress Plans to Quietly Raise the Debt Limit

  • Congress Hopes Americans and Credit Markets Don't Notice: To avoid scrutiny, congressional leadership will likely try to sneak the debt limit increase into a "must-pass" measure, such as the defense appropriations bill. Doing so would limit necessary debate on the debt in the hopes that taxpayers and creditors would not respond.
  • Increase Would Be Largest in History: Because this will be a difficult vote, the majority's leadership has suggested raising the limit enough to avoid another vote on the debt limit before the November 2010 elections. The estimated $1.8 trillion increase would be the single-greatest increase of the debt limit in history.

"Entitlement programs will double in size over the next few decades and cause the national debt to reach 320% of the economy." Clearly some of these entitlement programs will have to be cut or drastically reduced. The sad thing is that the government has forced people to be dependent on the government. For example, around twelve point four percent of one's pay check is taxed to pay for Social Security and two point nine percent to pay for Medicare, you pay seven point seven percent and your employer pays seven point seven percent. Fifteen dollars out of every one hundred you earn is taxed just by these two taxes alone. (I got these last figures from my Social Security statement.) So what is going to happen when all of these people are forced to suck on the government teat and it runs dry? As of now I don't see how the latter will be avoided?

Some more interesting information about the debt,
By 2030, Bergsten anticipates the net foreign debt of the United States will exceed $50 trillion, or 140 percent of gross domestic product. He predicted that by 2030, the United States will be paying $2.5 trillion a year to the rest of the world, equal to the nation's current total spending on health care, just to pay the interest on U.S. debt.[...]He continued, It has long been known that large external deficits pose substantial risks to the U.S. economy because foreign investors might at some point refuse to finance these deficits on terms compatible with U.S. prosperity.'Any sudden stop in lending to the United States would drive the dollar down, push inflation and interest rates up, and perhaps bring on a hard landing for the United States – and the world economy at large.'

I am not fully aware of what the implications that these numbers will have for the economic future of America or the world; but from what I understand, it is not going to be good for the world economy, as much of the other economies of the world are build on a foundation of debt. If an economic collapse is to be avoided, a major shift in the direction of our country needs to occur. Even if this does occur, America will still be dealing with the effects of the debt caused by the recession and all of the other economic reforms and the overall shift of economic power from the private sector to the government that are occurring. The national debt will be a major drain on the overall economy for some time to come. I don't know if what happened in California will happen on a national or world scale, as Melkor stated, because many people are being forced to be dependent on the government for their substance during retirement and, in the next decade or two, their health care. The government is absorbing a lot of the private sector and using a lot of its resources, which there is a limited amount of, so that there will be little left for the private sector to produce anything. From the information I have now and my understanding of that information, I believe a major economic disturbance is a very real possibility at some point down the road.

11 comments:

  1. Are you talking about a disturbance in the force?

    You're right. This is not good.

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  2. Good post Jeff. Yeah, the trend lines are unsustainable. It won't get to the points that are presented in your article because things will break before it gets there. This administration and congress are trying their damnedest to increase the rate of climb of our debt. To liberals, it's just free money. Why worry about the future? They're not having any kids that this debt will fall on. Crunch time will be painful. Even Conservative small-government hero Ronald Reagan didn't have the ability or the will to shrink government, but that is what will be required in a big way to solve this.

    The Tea Party effort is our best hope in getting candidates that will push this. Whether they can carry the day over a nation of dependents is hard to say. The socialists are winning their battle against the bourgeois middle-class at the moment. Their goal, destroy the middle-class and create a nation of the super rich and working-poor/welfare-dependents. The time to fight is now! This is not the time to cower and surrender.

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  3. I don't know if things will break before its gets to the point of no return. Japan's debt to GDP ratio is at 140% according to this website--probably more now. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

    And it is still on the rise. as noted here.

    http://robinsontalkingpoints.blogspot.com/2009/09/change-comes-to-japan.html

    Another great website to illustrate America's debt is http://usdebtclock.org/
    According to this website America's debt to GDP ratio is at 85%.(This is different from the website above because the data above is about a year old.)

    I don't think politicians or the public have enough foresight to do the hard thing and reduce spending and the debt. The only way they will reverse course is when things do break. And when it gets to that point, it could be close to too late in terms of turning things around. I believe they might react like they did to this current finical crises by electing basically a big-government leadership that promises to make things better with more government. Read "The Road to Serfdom". This is how a country deteriorates into tyranny--"From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by dictatorship."(See the quote on my last article.)

    The fact is that Americans are becoming increasingly dependent on the government, and the Country is becoming more dependent on how the government uses its resources. Look at how social security has grown and became as large as it is, and compare this with the current attempts to reform health care--there will be a single payer, universal health care latter down the road. The only way to prevent a collapse in the future is for the America people to wake up and force the Country to do a complete turn around. This won't happen because the vast majority of the American people's mind have been conditioned to accept more government and principles that are the exact opposite of what makes a free Country possible. I believe history repeats itself. America's fate is revealed to any who wants to know. I hope this is not the case. As of now, I don't see how things will be different.

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  4. I agree. Its obivous where America is headed. This path has been taken before and everyone knows where it leads to.

    But, I don't think there has ever been a nation quite like ours. If there is any country designed to reverse this trend and correct its path then America is that country. Our country has the ability and hopefully the will to stand up and say when enough is enough.

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  5. Loose fiscal policy leads to the collapse of a country. And as a result of this, tyranny emerges as people elect a savior-like figure that promises to make things better; but in reality creates a tyrannical government.

    I think will turn around in the short term, and everything won't be all that bad. The form of tyranny that awaits us is not a Soviet style system of Gulags. It will be a mild and soft form of tyranny.

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  6. As long as I get a law degree and have power in this world, I dont really care. I just want money, knowledge, and power.

    And a beautiful family.

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  7. Actually I do care if we have a tyrannical government.

    But I still want power, money, and knowledge.

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  8. It does look like a big disturbance in the force there jammer.

    Here is another article I read about this. http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/391552/is-sovereign-debt-the-new-subprime

    "That’s a question many on Wall Street are asking as 2009 comes to a close. Just as many subprime borrowers were unable to make their mortgage payments in 2007 and 2008, investors now fear certain nations will be unable to pay their debts in the year ahead."

    "Rising mortgage defaults and credit card delinquencies put many banks on the brink of bankruptcy in 2008, sending the global economy into a tailspin. But sovereign debt defaults are potentially even more catastrophic as they can lead to geopolitical instability, societal unrest and even war. And there will also be economic ramifications for investors worldwide, putting America’s (and the globe’s) fragile recovery at great risk."

    "To varying degrees, Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia, Mexico are just a handful of the nations viewed at risk of defaulting. Meanwhile, Dubai only just avoided a similar fate thanks to a $10 billion bailout from their oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi."

    The same type of problem that caused the current recession is taking place on a much larger scale. Dubai just skated by from defaulting on its debt. It got bailed out. The economies of the world are being built on a foundation of debt, and these countries are not changing course.

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  9. I just read another article about this topic.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Report-In-one-year-US-debt-has-risen-from-41-to-53-percent-of-GDP-79253352.html

    "Today's report from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is a sobering read:
    "'Over the past year alone, the public debt of the United States rose sharply from 41 to 53 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under reasonable assumptions, the debt is projected to grow steadily, reaching 85 percent of GDP by 2018, 100 percent by 2022, and 200 percent in 2038. However, before the debt reached such high levels, the United States would almost certainly experience a debt-driven crisis — something previously viewed as almost unfathomable in the world’s largest economy.'"

    "'Public debt' refers to the portion of the debt not held by the government in its various trust funds."

    "The solution, the report states, must revolve around reforms to "programs that are growing faster than the economy -- notably Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and certain tax policies." (The latter is identified elsewhere as the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003.) These cheery-eyed suggestions are the most frightening part of the report. They are so obvious, and they have so little chance of being put into effect."

    "The current Democratic Congress is always happy to lean harder on the taxpayer, but that well is pretty shallow and already running dry, and higher taxes will not help the cause of future growth. And as for the entitlement reforms -- the most important part of any fiscal solution for the U.S. government -- widespread dependency on entitlements has made reform politically impossible. Republicans were turned back by the special interests blocking Social Security reform in 2005. Democrats' planned cuts to Medicare have made senior citizens the strongest opponents of President Obama's planned health care reforms."

    Yep, looks like the debt is increasing and entitlement programs that are growing faster than the economy are making in hard to lower this debt. More good news.

    "The United States would almost certainly experience a debt-driven crisis — something previously viewed as almost unfathomable in the world’s largest economy." The question is how will the people and the government react to this crises? This is occurring on a global level.

    I don't see what is going to solve this problem. People are being forced to become dependent on the government which makes it hard to curb these programs, and the government won't be able to provide for these people due to bankruptcy.

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  10. Yeah, George Bush tried to reform Social Security in 2005 and got hammered by the Democrats for it. The MSM said, "your social security will be subjected to the whims of the stock market", which is sort of true, but scared everyone out making an attempt to reform SS.

    And one dirty little secret is that Republicans are hitting Democrats over the head with the threat of cuts in Medicare to get senior citizens to oppose ObamaCare. ObamaCare is going to rob Medicare to pay for ObamaCare, so it's not an attempt to get spending under control, but it is still using the threat of getting free stuff from the government taken away to motivate the voter to oppose something.

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  11. Republicans and Democrats are basically the same. They are spending the nation into debt.

    Once people get dependent on the government it is hard to get them independent from it. Eliminating social security or medicare will not happen. Nor should it since people were forced to pay into the system, so they should get their benefits or money back. The only thing to hope for is reform, and that is impossible. It would require the public to understand how these entitlement programs are bankrupting the Country and leading up to a much greater world-wide finical crises, and that in the long run they won't be getting their benefits. It would also require the public, especially older people, to not be so easily scared by politicians.

    The course that America is on will require the public to wake up. I don't see that happening. They have been conditioned through the education system and pop culture to be how they are. The best that can happen in terms of the direction America is headed is a slow down or a slight detour.

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