Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Angela Merkel - Bankroller of the EU

OK, not sure that the bankroller of the free world should be showing that much cleavage, uhm,  dunno, maybe it gets the perverted old Greek Prime Minister to agree to what she says.

Anyway, Der Spiegel has a very interesting article, showing the German perspective of what is going on in the EU.  At times, it makes you think that the EU will probably spin apart, at other times, it makes you think that, as Melkor thinks, that the EU and the IMF are doing their best to hold everything together and control everything. 

The first paragraph reads like something straight out of a Jeff or Melkor World Domination prediction:
Fearing a lasting burden on taxpayers, the German government is preparing a set of insolvency rules for countries in the euro zone. It would require private investors to bear some of the financial burden and force the affected countries to give up some sovereignty.
But, notice that she's making this proposal because her constituents, the German voters, are pissed off about funding the EU's basket-case economies. So that one paragraph seems to both back-up the World Domination cheerleaders and the local government cheerleader (that would be me).

The whole article is fascinating because it's dealing with things we talk about so much here, not particularly from the perspective of any of us.  More:
The effort is necessary, because important safety measures to protect the common currency are not working. The Stability and Growth Pact, which was intended to nip excessive government borrowing in the bud, proved to be largely worthless. Some of the monetary union's ironclad principles were ignored, including a rule that prohibits member states from coming to the aid of others in financial difficulties. It was only with political tricks of questionable legitimacy that the euro-zone countries managed to ward off the crisis in the short term, but by no means has it been overcome. German taxpayers, in particular, could face enormous burdens if the current measures fail. Under the provisions of the bailout package, Germany has pledged up to €170 billion.
I skipped over the part of where Merkel and her Finance Minister have worked so hard to put together a package, that France can go along with, that sets up new rules for how to manage the crisis and not screw over the German taxpayer. The above paragraph shows that one country in particular is carrying the weight of Europe, and that the rules that were laid down by the international authority were ignored by some member states.

The article is goes into great detail explaining everything that is going on, including the creation of a "Berlin Club" of donor nations. Summary paragraphs:
The concept by no means sells itself. If the project were organized under the auspices of the EU, it would face a high hurdle: The European treaties would have to be amended to establish the Berlin Club, which would require the consent of each individual member. This is not a process governments are keen to repeat after the experiences of the Lisbon Treaty.

Nevertheless, there is no way around pushing ahead with emergency planning, because the situation could come to a head more quickly than anticipated. The aid for Greece is subject to the Papandreou government fulfilling the EU and IMF requirements. The Greek prime minister is full of good intentions, but his measures have been relatively ineffective so far. Although the government is raising taxes and even introducing new taxes, revenues have fallen short of expectations. Strikes, like the one that was staged last Thursday, are constantly paralyzing public life and the economy.

In other words, it is quite possible that Greece will not fulfill the conditions and thus will receive no aid from the European fund. This could lead to a consequence that European leaders have been trying to prevent at all costs: a total national bankruptcy. And, if the reform package has not been implemented by then, it could end up being anything but an orderly process.

What do you guys think?

5 comments:

  1. Germany put itself in this situation in the first place: they helped to create a union and allowed themselves to be tied together economically with the other EU nations and one that created the incentives in the 1st place for smaller nations like the PIIGS to run up massive deficits at the expense of the larger EU members. Their lack of enforcement on the rule of running up deficits that were above a certain percentage point above their GDP, a rule that Germany broke itself, and the rule "that prohibits member states from coming to the aid of others in financial difficulties". As a result of the larger EU nations are the ones that will be footing the bill. Another result is that the national sovereignty of the nations that run up massive debt will be lost to some extent, "If the plans are implemented, banks and investors will not be the only ones bearing the burden when countries in the euro zone encounter financial difficulties. The debt-ridden countries themselves will also have to make substantial sacrifices, and their governments will cede some of their power." Germany put itself in this situation, but it does stand to gain more clout and influence or power in the EU as a result of this situation as a stronger union is formed with a more unified central authority.

    A stronger union could come about as a result of this or as Soros believes, "Flaws built into the euro from the start had become acute, Soros told a seminar, warning that the euro crisis could have the potential to destroy the 27-nation European Union." http://www.cnbc.com/id/37723118

    Germany should have let Greece go bankrupt which would have sent a message to the other PIIGS. Maybe they didn't because they feared social unrest or the effects on the EU and world economy or they were worried about perserving all the political, economic, power and prestige capital invested in the union. This is a microcosm of the greater global community: a more interconnected global economy is leading to economic downturn by creating the wrong economic incentives and building itself on a foundation of debt and Keynesian economic which in turn leads to stronger IO's with a more active role in individual nation's economies: a downward spiral.

    There is a lot more to be said about this topic. Time will tell where this all leads to.

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  2. @ Bud-D: Der Spiegle might be a little pessimistic about the claims that Greece hasn't been able to perform on any of their promises. Greek bonds just fell below the EU 5% rate (which means the gov't can refinance their debt at rate lower than the EU offered "bailout"), and deficit reduction measures by Greece are performing better than expected. This isn't to say they're out of the water yet, but it does show 6 months after the fact, the Greek PM is still fighting the good fight. A good fight, forced by an IO on a socialist gov't that makes our republicans look like Maoists.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/greek-banks-drive-bill-rates-below-eu-loans-at-sale.html

    @ Jeff: Yes yes, a stronger monetary union will emerge from this. And by stronger, one that will allow countries to fail. This has been discussed already. I want to make one more argument here though, everyone should remember the recent G-20 summit in Canada (ignore the hippies for a moment). What was the source of contention between Obama and the EU? If you forgot, let Barroso (President of the EU Commission spell it out for you):

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/15/europe-warns-obama-relationship-working/

    Did I miss something? Hmmm....The EU presented their economic plan (cutting debt & deficits) and Obama presented his, Jeff's feared Keynesian nightmare...It would seem that the EASIEST and selfish thing that countries would do in times like these would be to follow Jeff's fears and spend spend spend (as well as restrict foreign trade). Remember, despite the C.Right orientation of the EU, it still has a few Leftist gov'ts, but/BUT the EU can limit the impact and even change Leftist policies. It would seem that despite the flaws of the EU, they do force some type of accountability which independent and sovereign countries don't have. This international global community (or at least, the European one) is acting FAR MORE responsible than us/US.

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  3. We should all thank Fox News for pointing out how fiscally conservative the EU is compared to the US at the moment.

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  4. Yeah, I have mixed feelings about the comparisons between the EU and the US, as one who continually said "who cares what Europe thinks?" during the Bush administration, it would be a little unfair to say "Look what Europe is doing!" now. But, it is ironic, how the MSM fails to report on what Europe thinks with Obama and Democrats in power, compared with how they reported on it when Bush and Republicans were in power.

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