Iraq Falling Apart And Islamist Take Charge In Egypt

Almost immediately after American forces left Iraq the security situation and the fragile Iraqi government started to fall apart:

Faster than anyone expected, barely a month after the last U.S. troops left, Iraq's government appears to be coming apart, prompting fears that the country is headed for another round of sectarian strife.[...]

In the midst of the political squabbling, insurgents, possibly al-Qaida, have carried out attacks , killing at least 250 civilians in Baghdad and other cities in the time since U.S. forces left, giving the country a security scare.

The article also points out how that the situation in Iraq is possibly being unjustifiably portrayed in America as a success:

The Obama administration, which trumpeted the U.S. troop withdrawal as the fulfillment of a campaign promise, views the internal conflict as a real crisis and a big problem for future relations.

The United States has "repeatedly" told Maliki and other political leaders that "our relationship, all the things we want to do" depend on "a resolution through constitutional means," a State Department official said. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Less clear is whether the U.S. can help restore stability. With no military forces on the ground, Washington's leverage is meager.

President Barack Obama may have made things worse last month when he hosted Maliki in Washington and hailed him as the leader of "Iraq's most inclusive government yet."

"Iraqis are working to build institutions that are efficient and independent and transparent," Obama said.

The speech enraged Saleh Mutlak, a Sunni who is a deputy prime minister.

"What I heard from Obama was deceiving both for Americans and Iraqis," Mutlak said. "Obama is telling Americans that they were victorious in Iraq, they liberated the country and Iraqis are now very well situated, and the hero of Iraq, the prime minister, has made an inclusive government in Iraq. But it is the opposite."

So he gave an interview to CNN in which he denounced Maliki as a "dictator."

"I wanted to let Mr. Obama know that what he's telling his own people is not correct. And I wanted to tell my people that I have waited enough, and it's time to tell the truth of what's going on inside the government. If Maliki stays in power, dictatorship will be more concentrated."

It seems that in a haste to withdraw from a long and unpopular war, America leaders might have made an early withdraw at the expense of America's long term national security interest in Iraq and the region. While most Americans might not care what is going on in Iraq and might support leaving Iraq, there is a very real concern of the possibility for Iran to exploit the political chaos and power vacuum to gain influence in Iraq as this article points out:

Military analysts and Middle East experts have spent years warning about the growing influence of Iran in Iraq. A group of Texas National Guardsmen watched it firsthand.

As one of the last U.S. units to deploy to Iraq, the Texas Army Guardsmen told congressional lawmakers in late November the Iraqi army still struggles to disseminate intelligence and manage logistics, leaving their soldiers vulnerable to outside influence. Iraqi soldiers spend weeks by themselves, without supplies or relief, on posts dispersed across the Iran-Iraq border.[..]

Iran is flooding Iraq’s markets with goods at much cheaper prices than other imports, leading other countries’ suppliers, in places such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, to not bother to sell in Iraq. Those supplies allow Iran to control southern Iraq’s markets and thus its stomachs.

“It really means more than you might think,” Smith told Republican Rep. Mike Conaway, a member of the Armed Services Committee. “It’s really going to be a big problem for them in the future.”

The Iraqi army also continues to struggle to set up its intelligence network, Spurgin said. The soldiers don’t have an effective, decentralized system to spread information securely and efficiently across the country.

When asked by Conaway if the Iraqis could protect their borders from an external threat such as Iran, he bluntly said no. Spurgin told the congressman the Iraqis could not defend against an invading force.

“Operationally, the Iraqi Army has the ability to provide internal security of their own country, but they’re not ready to defend their country from an external threat,” Spurgin said.

If Iran does end up with considerable influence in Iraq, a very real concern by some American leaders, then the Iraq war will have been a wasted war and effort from my perspective. What would over ten years of American effort at the cost of 850 billion dollars, 4800 dead, and 32000 wounded been for?

The results of the Arab Spring are also creating the potential to weaken America and the West's long term interest. Middle East the Arab Spring that was suppose result in the flowering of democracy in the Middle East has resulted in Islamist winning seventy-five percent of the Egyptian parliament:

Final results on Saturday showed that Islamist parties won nearly three-quarters of the seats in parliament in Egypt's first elections since the ouster of authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak, according to election officials and political groups.The Islamist domination of Egypt's parliament has worried liberals and even some conservatives about the religious tone of the new legislature, which will be tasked with forming a committee to write a new constitution. Overseeing the process will be the country's Mubarak-era military generals, who are still in charge.A coalition led by the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood won 47 percent, or 235 seats in the 498-seat parliament. The ultraconservative Al-Nour Party was second with 25 percent, or 125 seats.

But there is nothing to worry about according to our government because"... top U.S. officials from the State Department have recently met with the Muslim Brotherhood's leaders, who have in turn assured Western officials that they respect minority rights and support democracy". The Muslim Brotherhood is the party whose spiritual leader wants to kill Jews from his wheelchair, there is actually a video of this guy (who gave a speech to millions of Egyptians shortly after the Egyptian uprising) saying this. Also taking a look at the early history of the Muslim Brotherhood is illuminating and will make you view things through a different prism.

Overall, America's long term nation interest in the Middle East being achieved doesn't seem likely.

Obama's Afghanistan and Iraq Policies - Status Update

So, what's the RTP consensus on Commander-in-Chief Obama's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan?  The one aspect of Obama's presidency that I've been pleasantly surprised about is his handling of the Iraq and Afghan conflicts so far.  Pleasantly surprised as in not-a-disaster.  He's blown off his political base and pretty much done exactly what George Bush would be doing if he still were in office.  The fact that I can repeat this statement seven months after I first said it is a good thing.

In Iraq: After George Bush made the brave, painful, unpopular, highly risky choice (ie acted like a leader) of endorsing the surge suggested by Gen Petraeus, and ended up winning Iraq War III, Obama did not pull out precipitously as he had said he would in his campaign.  Obama has ordered a phased, steady disengagement, but, probably only due to Bush's efforts, this is happening under the same conditions that it would have happened with Bush at the helm: a combat phase-out happening when Iraqis are able to control things themselves.  From The Whitehouse's own Issues page:

Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq
On February 27, 2009, President Obama announced a plan to responsibly end the war in Iraq.

By August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end and Iraqi Security Forces will have full responsibility for major combat missions. After August 31, 2010, the mission of United States forces in Iraq will fundamentally change. Our forces will have three tasks: train, equip, and advise the Iraqi Security Forces; conduct targeted counterterrorism operations; and provide force protection for military and civilian personnel. The President intends to keep our commitment under the Status of Forces Agreement to remove all of our troops from Iraq by the end of 2011.

Assuming things don't go down the tubes between now and then, this is a good, sensible policy, but only because Bush cleared the way for it to be sensible.

In Afghanistan, you know, the War that Bush forgot in his pursuit of cheap Iraqi oil, Obama has approved an increase in troop levels by 30,000, in semi-agreement with the request of Gen McChrystal, in an attempt to surge to put down the growing insurgency by the Taliban.  He announced a timetable for departure, which is foolish, but the fact that he is willing to fight the war even temporarily is more than what we expected from him.  This may or may not be the right policy for Afghanistan.  Maybe the right policy here is to pull back to major bases and just fuck up the Taliban when they get uppity.  But, at least it is not cutting-and-running.

I have many, many bones to pick with Obama, but in this critical area, he has been no better or worse than his predecessor, and it must drive his left wing base crazy!  You go girl!