Monday, August 22, 2011

EU Update


Bad news out of the EU has been driving global worries over another financial crisis and this has been a contributing factor behind the volatility in the stock market the past couple of weeks. What happens in the EU will affect the U.S. and global economy to a great extent. A note of interest is that the U.S. is already bailing out the EU. It appears as if the great EU political project is falling apart. This is not the case according to a lot of market analyst:









'The default position is more integration, which is why commentary, especially that coming out of the US, is very focused on euro break-up is biased towards thinking about the downside scenario, and is not really thinking about the upside scenario,' he told CNBC.com. 'The upside scenario I think is one that's more consistent with the history of European projects.'[...]
'When people ask us 'is Greece going to leave the euro?' our immediate pushback is that Greece doesn't have the agency. It's not really Greece's choice – it's Germany's choice and it's France's choice,' Rahman said. [...]

However, he too said that stepping forwards towards integration, not backwards, is the far more likely scenario.
'Of course, it didn't happen in an orderly way, and now possibly it's coming in a disorderly way, because now everyone's realizing that you can't have a currency and a single market and communalized trade policy without also having more political cohesion and more fiscal union,' Techau said.
'Maybe, in the end, ironically, Helmut Kohl will be vindicated because the answer to the crisis is either disruption, or another bold step towards integration,'[...]
The most noise seems to be coming from commentators who believe in disintegration, but those who really understand the inner workings of the EU say the opposite: economically it does not make sense, technically it is exceptionally difficult and politically it is nearly unthinkable.


One of the legacy of this global financial crisis will be a more economically united globe. This economic crisis is going to force some politicians and nations to do things that they otherwise would not do: like integrate further into international governing bodies.

European leaders are being pushed into closer fiscal union sooner than they had anticipated by volatile markets concerned over a dearth of ideas on how to solve the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, analysts and investors told CNBC.[...]

'If you believe the United States of Europe is stronger than the individual nations, it's simply a step that the politicians have been working towards, but now they're being pushed into it rather than managing the process,' Neil Dwane, chief investment officer for Europe at RCM told CNBC.

Over the weekend, German chancellor Angela Merkel seemed to soften her position on the issuance of so-called euro bonds, but she stressed they were not on the table for now.

'I think [Merkel] is just realizing that politicians are pushed by markets into solutions that politicians don't feel comfortable with yet,' Frank Engels, co-head of European Economics Research and Asset Allocation Strategy at Barclays Capital explained.
His comments reflected those made by Paul Donovan, deputy head of Global Economics to CNBC last week, who warned that markets would push European leaders towards "extreme action" and he called for the appointment of a European statesman to oversee closer fiscal union within the euro zone.[...]

'There is a sense that you have to move eventually towards a common fiscal union, a very coordinated policy approach on economic and fiscal policies, but not now, not yet because you need to lay the foundations in terms of political and legal infrastructure first and then later on move, that is the message [Merkel] wants to provide to markets,' Engels said.

It appears that the EU has lost, to some extent, "its power of decision over the direction that it is going". This economic crisis is the result of a government managed economies. The main instrument that the governments use to manage the economies of the world is through central banking and international governing bodies like the IMF/World Bank (both founded by a Fabian Socialist and a communist). The IMF/World Bank is helping to keep the socialist's dream of global socialism from falling apart in the case of the EU by continuing to bailout the failed nations that should be allowed to default. (A look into the history of central banking and the IMF/World Bank is illuminating.) These government institutions are helping to create an economic crisis that will push the world into a global-socialist-communist-governance. Well that sounds stupid doesn't it? The financial analysts take on the events happening in the EU point to the fact that the EU is being pushed by economic events into a tighter political/fiscal union. What has been the overall effect of the global economic crisis, larger and more united government(s) that are/is taking over economic functions once carried out by the private sector. The direction that the the world is a more in is that of a more united globe, economy and politically. I could state it in a more intelligent manner but that would take a lot more time and room.

4 comments:

  1. I predict Euro-breakup into at least two parts in 2-3 years. Germans will not bail out Greeks forever.

    I predict President Perry next year.

    I predict a general trend of less government intrusion into markets from now onward.

    Anonymous Bud-D

    ReplyDelete
  2. I hope Perry wins next year, but I don't think it will matter in the long run. A big Reagan-type boom could ocurr like what happened after Carter. But even under Reagan the government grew massively and Reagan didn't change the direction of this Nation to a great extent. I think governments have no chose but to continue integration due to forces, markets, beyond their control.

    I think the EU and the world will continue down the road is, integration financial/political, until it does collapse under its own weight and this united world stuff fails in a very distruptive way to the stability of the world. But before it fails, a more united globe will come close to a reality. But yes it will ultimately fail and not last.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I like Perry a lot. He might have the balls to do some of the things that we need. He looks like he is openly religious. There has not been a president that has been this open and full of faith since I have been alive. I think if he has the balls to be this openly convicted with his religion then he will have the balls to do all the things that this country needs (most anyway). Talking religion in this manner would spell political domise for most people.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOGcdWZTI9U
    But I think Perry has a quality that can still win it.

    -ToeJamm

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think Obama is very religous. His religion being that of the state, government, and collectivism. I think Bush was fairly religious, but maybe not as much as Perry. I think a significant portion of the electorate is religious so it might not take too much courage to be open about his religion. I don't know too much about Perry's religion. I think America needs to go back to its roots and go away from the high place of Bamah Eze 20:28, I know it might be taking it out of context and it ain't referring to Obama but it still is funny.

    I don't think the American people have the balls to voluntarily go into a economic depression and get off of the government teat. Hopefully Perry will win and make some good changes.

    ReplyDelete