Welcome to the website of the National Intelligence Council. The NIC is a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.The report is titled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World". The report is similar to the "Joint Operating Environment" report in the required reading section of the blog and it seems to restate some of the basic "predictions" present in the JOE report: "Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength—even in the military realm—will decline and US leverage will become more constrained."
The report also states the fact that wealth is being transferred from the West to the East, "The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue." This sounds like one of Obama's goals and maybe Obama can help make this a reality.
Another interesting thing is that the report seems to agree with the premise that anthropological climate change is a fact, "Climate change is likely to exacerbate resource scarcities, particularly water scarcities."
The next fifteen years will be marked by great changes,
More Change than Continuity The rapidly changing international order at a time of growing geopolitical challenges increases the likelihood of discontinuities, shocks, and surprises. No single outcome seems preordained: the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy, and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its luster—at least in the medium term.One of the "shocks" will come from the energy transition that will occur when the world shifts more away from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The report notes that this has in the past lead to great advancements for civilization; but if there is a transition away from traditional sources of energy without any new reliable renewable sources that don't exist as of now, then this would be a regression for civilization, at least for the West. Just look at the goal of fighting climate change that entails the Western nations lowering its energy consumption while transferring its wealth to the developing nations.
On the recent financial crises and how it has strained current international governing entities, IMF, and the global economic structure which calls for major reforms in the international economic structure,
The crisis has increased calls for a new 'Bretton Woods' to better regulate the global economy. World leaders, however, will be challenged to renovate the IMF and devise a globally transparent and effective set of rules that apply to differing capitalisms and levels of financial institutional development. Failure to construct a new all-embracing architecture could lead countries to seek security through competitive monetary policies and new investment barriers, increasing the potential for market segmentation.[...] Despite recent inflows into dollar assets and the appreciation of the dollar, the dollar could lose its status as an unparalleled global reserve currency byRegarding demographics and the aging population of the developed nations and the ensuing "pension boom",
2025, and become a first among equals in a market basket of currencies. This may
force the US to consider more carefully how the conduct of its foreign policy
affects the dollar.
The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations Population aging has brought today’s developed countries—with a few exceptions such as the US—to a demographic “tipping point.” Today, nearly 7 out of every 10 people in the developed world are in the traditional working years (ages 15 to 64)—a high-tide mark. This number has never before been so high and, according to experts, in all likelihood will never be so high again.I don't have much time to read the whole thing and to do a well-put-together post. Overall, the report is interesting but it doesn't seem to say anything new and I don't really know what to make of it. But I think it is interesting to read and provides a look into the world of the future--although it is a prediction and nobody can accurately predict the future.
Interesting report. Lots to quibble with of course, but interesting that the intelligence agencies look at this transfer of wealth (which would also imply power) from West to East as fact. What's interesting to me is that this transfer, should it occur, is totally self-inflicted by the West's own success, sense of magnanimity in victory at the end of WWII and the corresponding end of the colonial era, the ensuing demographic collapse caused by renunciation of moral institutions (the Church) and also birth control, and a sense that all the badness in the world is because of The West's success (fossil fuels).
ReplyDeleteOne of my goals as a speaker on the World Stage of RTP&GG is to point out that this is completely voluntary, and therefore can be reversed, albeit with great effort.
If the nations of Western Europe, and America, could resume their attitude of the 1800s, no one could stop us. Even at this late date. No one. We are stopping ourselves.
This report is read by policy makers and the leaders of our Country so that if they look at the world from this prism, then this could become a self fulling prophecy.
ReplyDeleteI think the decline of the West is a sure thing. The debt alone will help bring this about. To determine the direction that a society is going, you have to look at its culture and basic beliefs held by the average person. I think this decline came in part from the philosophy of those mentioned below and its spread all throughout our culture in a way that 97% of people don't realize. This was brought in part by our enemies during the Cold War who infiltrated our universities and culture.
I agree that America's decline is in part due to the decline of the Church and morality among the average person. The Church's influence has declined in large part because of itself and its lack of teaching truth and adhering to basic tenants of the faith. This came in part by the influence of people like Rousseau, Nietzsche, and Kant to name a few. Read their works and look at what their goals were: to overthrow the foundation of societies, which was the belief in a god and religion in general so that they could remake human nature, superman, and the world. The results of this played out well in the early 20th century and is still playing out. I do disagree that birth control is one of the reason of our decline. I believe that a lot of people that are having kids today should not because they are too young and not married. This is the result of the over sexualization of our society that is the result of the distruction of of morals and philosophy as presented in "The Closing of the American Mind". I think there needs to be far more birth control being used today.
I think America deserves to decline.