Sunday, June 27, 2010

U.S. Financial Reform: The Big Picture.




The U.S. financial reform bill has passed the house; but with the death of Senator Robert Byrd, the final bill won't pass the Senate until after the fourth of July recess, so the final-final details are not know as of yet and I have yet to find any article that goes into any great detail on the specifics in the new bill. In the meantime, I will take a broad and short overview on the subject and try to put it into perspective and context into the bigger picture by looking at what situation lead to the creation and passage of this bill, whose ideal this bill was, who the major authors of this bill were, and the very words of the people who authored this bill and the words of the President himself. Note that this post only covers the U.S. financial reforms as opposed to the coming Global financial reforms which I have read would have a greater impact on the banking industry,
As financial reform nears completion, the big Wall Street firms are turning their attention to new global banking rules that, if approved in their current form, would squeeze profits and lead to lower share prices[...]The reforms, which are being hammered out by the Basel Committee of global banking regulators, could make anything found in the US banking reforms look mild...

What lead to the creation and passage of this bill? The recent global economic recession. As made clear in "The House That Uncle Sam Built" that can be found in the required reading section and this nice video by Thomas Sowell, this recession was caused by government involvement and interference in the economy through its central banking policies and its involvement in the housing market. (A little side note of interest is the role that the system of credit played in the overall economic situation the world is in and the fact that the 30-year mortgage was made possible by government backing up these mortgages.) So what is the solution to a problem that was caused by government interference in the private sector? More government involvement and regulation by the very same people who authored the recent recession. Who would these people be? Barney Franks and Chris Dodd.

At the heart of the recent recession was the busting of housing bubble that was created by the government and more specifically through Barney Frank and Chris Dodd involvements in the housing market. Have they admitted that they made some very bad decisions and have they took responsibility for their part in the housing mess? No. These two are some of the major authors of this bill. So how can this bill be a good thing? What did the recent government involvement in the economy that lead to the collapse of the housing market lead to? A more active role for the government in the private sector.

What will this bill do? According to Chris Dodd, "No one... No one will know, until this is actually in place, how it works. We believe we have done something that has been needed for a long time. It took a crisis to bring us to the point where we could actually get this job done." Implied in the statement that it took a crises to get this bill passed, is the fact that gaining these new regulatory powers have been a goal before the recession started. So is this bill designed to deal with what caused the recession or is it designed to do some other "job"? (This sounds crazy and a little scary, but these are the very words of some of our representatives and shows the mentality of some of our Representatives. Also of note is this admission by Franks.)

According to this article,
The legislation puts a lot of faith in the watchful eye of regulators to prevent another financial crisis. New agencies would police consumer lending, the invention of financial products and the trading of exotic securities known as derivatives. Bank supervisors would have the power to seize large, troubled financial firms whose collapse could threaten the entire system. The bill calls for banks to hold more money in reserve to weather economic storms but leaves the details to regulators.

A lot of faith in the watchful eyes of the regulators. Who are the regulators? "Some administration officials acknowledged that leaving so much decision-making in the hands of regulators could open the process to lobbying by the financial industry. Many bank supervisors, in fact, work inside the headquarters of the biggest financial firms and have close relationships with the executives of the companies they regulate." Having the very same people in the industries regulating that industry presents conflicts of interest. Whose interest are the regulators going to look out after? The regulators are more likely to us their government position of influence and authority to benefit their particular business or industry at the expense of everybody else, and this has the effect of combing together the normally opposing interest of government and private business. This is crony capitalism: it is the melding of government and big business. (I have read that small community banks will face new challenges as a result of finreg, and this will help do away with the smaller banks by placing them on an unfair playing field with the larger banks and has the effect of consolidating banking in the hands of a few large banks, so this bill helps to perpetuate "too big to fail".)

Here is President Obama's words after the passage of the bill,
We are poised to pass the toughest financial reforms since the ones we created in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Early this morning the House and Senate reached an agreement on a set of Wall Street reforms that represents 90% of what I proposed when I took up this fight. Now, let me be clear. Our economic growth and prosperity depend on a strong, robust financial sector, and I will continue to do what I can to foster and support a dynamic private sector. But we've all seen what happens when there is inadequate oversight and insufficient transparency on Wall Street.
What was created after the aftermath of the great depression? A larger and more active role for the government in the private sector economy. Note that the President does not believe in the private sector. When he was working in it he referred to it as "working behind enemy lines". The President got 90% of what he wanted. Looking at his political ideology and his view on what role the government should play in the economy, I would question if what he wants is actually good for the free market and freedom in general.

To sum up, there has been a very deep and protracted global recession caused by government involvement in the private sector, I know it was a little more complicated than this but this is basically what happened. Then to solve this problem, the government will give itself a larger role to play in the economy by creating new regulatory powers for itself. And of course these new powers were made up by the very same individuals who brought about the U.S. housing policy that lead to the collapse of the housing market. Was the private sector to blame? Yes, but the errors that the private sector made were the result of bad government incentives and pressure to give loans to people that should not have gotten them. As Mises stated about government intervention in the private sector, "If governments do not give them up and return to the unhampered market economy, if they stubbornly persist in the attempt to compensate by further interventions for the shortcomings of earlier interventions, they will find eventually that they have adopted socialism." I will try to do a post on all of the smaller details like "too big to fail"; bailouts, this bill makes bailouts more likely; evil credit default swaps and derivatives, the argument against them is similar to the argument against speculators; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, this bill does not address these two entities that back over 96% of all mortgages and were at the heart of the financial meltdown and which are now a "public policy instrument of the government" , and etc...

11 comments:

  1. Nice overview of the Financial Reform package. Oh, and posting pics of RTP%GG's villains #1 & #2 is a nice touch too. I guess Dodd is not running for re-election, but Frank probably is. Both these douchebags should be in jail. That they are in positions of economic authority after the disaster THEY inflicted on this country is an outrage! Among the many other outrages we discuss here :)

    Happy 4th Marines!

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  2. So basically we will have more of a centralized economy then we have already? Who taught these guys economics? I guess they only thing that can teach us is a huge meltdown or a republican with balls.

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  3. Barney Frank's face looks like the bubble that he created.

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  4. Independence from what? Tyranny? Big government? What do we have now and what has been the trend for the last 100 years? The American people have voted to have the very same shackles that lead to independence being declared put back on them. But America is still one of the best Countries to live in and we still have a high level of freedom for the time being.

    The scary thing about Franks is that he was reelected immediately after the economic downturn and his role in it was revealed. The fact that people keep reelecting people like him is scary. I know Dodd is retiring and it doesn't look like Franks is going away anything soon--I haven't heard anything in the news. It is just amazing how the very people who had a major part in causing the downturn are now setting themselves up as the ones to fix this and have written the largest regulation changes to the financial industry since the Great Depression.

    This bill helps to put smaller banks at a competitive disadvantage with the larger banks who have connections in government. This bill consolidates power in the hands of a few large banks that are heavily regulated and influenced by the government. When people vote they respond to the immediate economic moment at the time. They don't vote on principles. So if the economy is bad they will vote the current party out. They won't vote based on principles.

    It just amazes me that people like Franks can continue to get reelected. A free nation can not survive a population that continually puts people like this in power. What is wrong with people up in the North East?

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  6. Independence from what? Tyranny? Big government? What do we have now and what has been the trend for the last 100 years? The American people have voted to have the very same shackles that lead to independence being declared put back on them. But America is still one of the best Countries to live in and we still have a high level of freedom for the time being.

    The scary thing about Franks is that he was reelected immediately after the economic downturn and his role in it was revealed. The fact that people keep reelecting people like him is scary. I know Dodd is retiring and it doesn't look like Franks is going away anything soon--I haven't heard anything in the news. It is just amazing how the very people who had a major part in causing the downturn are now setting themselves up as the ones to fix this and have written the largest regulation changes to the financial industry since the Great Depression.

    This bill helps to put smaller banks at a competitive disadvantage with the larger banks who have connections in government. This bill consolidates power in the hands of a few large banks that are heavily regulated and influenced by the government. When people vote they respond to the immediate economic moment at the time. They don't vote on principles. So if the economy is bad they will vote the current party out. They won't vote based on principles.

    It just amazes me that people like Franks can continue to get reelected. A free nation can not survive a population that continually puts people like this in power. What is wrong with people up in the North East?

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  7. This post is a brief overview of what led to the crisis, but doesn't really explain the current financial reform bill. As per my understanding, it's a lot more focused on the derivatives market. We've all become acquainted with the term "moral hazard" from previous economic lectures. It seems to me, that derivatives followed the outcome of moral hazard. More and more people attempted to mitigate their risks by hedging their bets. Once the rotten fruit was exposed (which was the gov't guaranteed bad mortgages), that set the crash. This situation
    (but not mechanisms) was foreseen by Warren Buffet and Greenspan 7 years ago: (http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/09/cx_aw_0509derivatives.html).

    I think there needs to be much more thought going into this discussion then merely saying "gov't intervention bad." I'm not saying I agree with this bill by any means. Obviously, firms should be able invest their money the best way they see fit in the market. However, should investors be able to lie in order to influence this behavior? Without regulation, firms would be able to lie, it is not in their best interest to disclose their assets and it takes a third party to compel them to do so. Lets take this a step further, should an investor be able to lie to another party about an asset in order to get them to wager on the success/failure of such a asset? What if that other party is a CUSTOMER of the investor, should firms be able to lie to the customers in order get them to buy a product so the firm can bet against it? We should support Goldman Sach's betting on mortgages against other investment firms, but they shouldn't be able to dupe their customers. This is precisely what they did that set about the derivatives crash that bankrupted AIG and other giants. That's fraud and is a threat to healthy market (at least, that's what Theodore Roosevelt said when he created regulations on the food packing industry). In this instance, I say that a third party (i.e. gov't) is needed in order to protect the market. The Democrat bill is probably loaded with a bunch of bullshit that is far and beyond what I've articulated here, and I'm probably going to hate it and bitch about it. Nonetheless, I recognize where and when the gov't should intervene and we should be clear as well.



    Investors like Goldman Sachs should be rewarded for seeing the opportunities in other people's herd mentality. But should they be able to misinform people about the value of a bet

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  8. I copy my post before I enter post comment so that if anything happens I can just paste it and try again.

    Melkor, notice the title of the post and the fact that this is an overview and does not nor was intended to go into the details--this post was a pre-post to the main detailed post. The final bill has not passed.

    On your point: "I think there needs to be much more thought going into this discussion then merely saying 'gov't intervention bad.'", I do admit that the post does not go into detail as I mentioned above. I could spell out all the details, when I am done researching, that I know and branch off from the primary generalization. But once one does this it does basically come down to the fact that government intervention caused the mess and now to solve it the VERY same people that authored the economic near-collapse are the very ones writing the new regulations to deal with this. The very entity that caused the mess is now setting itself up as the one to fix it.

    You are again equating my argument against this financial reform bill as being against all government regulation. No body is suggesting that there should be no government regulation and that there is no place for limited government oversight. If the government proposes to intervene in a bad way that would do more harm than good, should the government then intervene in the 1st place because government intervention is needed?

    I am not done researching the details. I am not saying that the private sector did not do anything wrong. Does this bill even address the issue you bring up? Your whole argument against derivatives and GS actions is similar to the chicken before the egg. What lead GS to do this? Was it the fact that they were forced to take on bad loans? Who did that? I am still reading and learning about Credit default swaps, a type of derivative, and derivatives in general. Here is what I have come across so far. On the point of GS betting against their customers, the whole point of derivatives is to hedge risk. This acts to project themselves. Say you make an investment and that investment has considerable risk. You can bet against that investment, or bet that it will be a bad one, and help mitigate some of the risk and prevent your loses from being too great in the case of a bad investment. If you were the banks, then you were forced to take on worthless loans. What are you supposed to do with these worthless assets? Try to hedge against them and help prevent further loss so that you will loose less. By betting against these bad assets the bank helped to protect its customers from more loses. What lead to the need to hedge risk in the 1st place?

    Here is a good article on credit default swaps, a type of derivative. http://mises.org/daily/4502

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  9. As long as people dont violate the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles then there would be no problem. If a company tried to lie about its investments or what not, there are plenty of financial accounts that would say otherwise. We dont need the government to tell us how to run shit. Accounting firms can research publicly accessible financial statements that can tell exactly what is being invested, where all cash flows, and the financial status of any business in this country. People who dont do their research before investing are the ones who get taken advantage of and this should only be a lesson learned for them. We dont need any more legislation.

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  10. I guess something did post but I thought my final copy was much better than that. Guess not. Yeah, I generally copy it or work on word, but sometimes when I get fired up I forget and then pull-a-boner (as per Triomono's parlance).

    I wasn't trying to say your article was ass or anything. I thought it was a good overview of the ACTUAL cause of this mess, I was only pointing out that it did not discuss the Financial Reform bill that is perilously close to passing at the moment.

    What is accurate about this situation is that firms are acting in a way to exploit a gov't interference in the market (gov't guarantee of home loans for peasant peons), while firms are acting dangerously by overloading on these bad mortgages and giving out cheap credit to bad consumers, they were operating within a rational and logical response to a bad gov't policy. Simply put, if the guarantee's didn't exist, this whole situation would not have happened. Period. You also provide a good overview of derivatives (and there a million which still confuses me), and I don't have a problem with the Credit Default Swap, again, if Goldman Sachs would've simply bet that the loans were bad and AIG would've accepted it, no foul. GS (to use your abbreviation) should be rewarded for superior intelligence/financial analysts/etc. I'm just concerned if it's true that they deliberately mislead their customers to buy or bet on bad loans while they bet against them. That's what should be banned.

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  11. There is some blame to be placed on the private sector in that they acted accordingly to the bad incentives that were the result of government interference. How could the firms give out cheap credit to consumers? Because of the expansion of the money supply and artifically low interest rates by the Fed's: an easy money policy. In regards to government interference, "When you give people the wrong incentives, people respond accordingly." I don't really understand derivatives and I don't think many do. I am concerned that the government mislead the public on many fronts.

    It is interesting that a lot of former GS people are now in government and they were one of the companies that got bailed out and also are the ones that stand to benefit from the new financial regulations. This topic would have to be explored in more detail.

    I think something needs to be done to prevent another near financial collapse from happening. I don't think this is the bill to do that.

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