Friday, September 28, 2012

Uncharted Terrority

QE-3 to infinity, creating money out of thin air, was announced on the thirteenth of this month:
The Federal Reserve announced plans to unleash more stimulus Thursday, in its third attempt at a controversial program to rev up the U.S. economy.
The policy, known as quantitative easing and often abbreviated as QE3, entails buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The end date remains up in the air, as the Fed will re-evaluate the strength of the economy in coming months.[...]
Meanwhile, the Fed will continue its existing policy known as Operation Twist. Together the two programs will add $85 billion in long-term bonds to the Fed's balance sheet each month.
  QE-3 is "open-ended". It will continue until the unemployment rate drops to an unspecified number. (It is interesting that one of the driving forces of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic was the desire to prevent massive unemployment.) The Federal Reserve is now buying around 74 percent of all new debt issued by the Treasury Department.

Ron Paul's stance of QE-3:
To me, it is so astounding that it does not collapse the markets. [Bernanke] said, ‘We are in very big trouble. We are going to do something unprecedented and we believe it will not hurt the dollar.’ [...] It means that we are weakening the dollar. We are trying to liquidate our debt through inflation.[...] I think the country should have panicked over what the Fed is saying that we have lost control and the only thing we have left is massively creating new money out of thin air, which has not worked before, and is not going to work this time.

According the Dallas Fed President:
The Federal Reserve's decision to jolt the economy a third time with monetary stimulus measures won't help the country much but could stoke inflationary pressures down the road, said Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a noted inflation hawk.[...]
Such a policy tool — known as quantitative easing but dubbed by many as merely printing money out of thin air — follows two similar rounds in the past that have flooded the economy with trillions of dollars with the hope of encouraging investing and hiring.[...]
It will come as no surprise to those who know me that I did not argue in favor of additional monetary accommodation during our meetings last week. I have repeatedly made it clear, in internal FOMC deliberations and in public speeches, that I believe that with each program we undertake to venture further in that direction, we are sailing deeper into uncharted waters,' Fisher told the Harvard Club recently, according to prepared remarks of his speech.
Despite all the models and resources at the Fed's disposal, uncertainty is a very difficult factor to plug into assumptions when forecasting the economy.
'The truth, however, is that nobody on the committee, nor on our staffs at the Board of Governors and the 12 Banks, really knows what is holding back the economy. Nobody really knows what will work to get the economy back on course,' Fisher said.
'And nobody—in fact, no central bank anywhere on the planet—has the experience of successfully navigating a return home from the place in which we now find ourselves. No central bank—not, at least, the Federal Reserve—has ever been on this cruise before.'
The Federal Reserve adheres to a dual mandate to keep prices stable and unemployment rates optimal.
The Fed sets monetary policy by targeting inflation rates to 2 percent, but many market experts say the latest stimulus policy reflects the Fed's desire to prioritize the unemployment portion of its mandate way above keeping inflation rates in check.
In other words, the Fed is so willing to keep its foot on the gas pedal and risk seeing inflation rates rise above target levels in order to see unemployment rates fall that the country is steaming ahead deeper into unfamiliar waters.
'Not only will they tolerate higher inflation, not only will they wish for higher inflation, but they actually may target higher inflation,' Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, manager of the world’s largest bond fund, told CNBC.
Central banks elsewhere have rolled out similar measures, flooding the world with inflation-fueling liquidity.
'This is true for all central banks — the (European Central Bank), the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England. We are so deep into unfamiliar territory, so deep into experimental mode, that we don’t know what the consequences will be,' El-Erian said.
'Whoever comes afterward will have to clean up the mess.'
On the point that  "central banks elsewhere have rolled out similar measures, flooding the world with inflation-fueling liquidity.",  Germany's Constitutional Court opened up the flood gates in Europe that will unleash unlimited money printing:
Germany's Constitutional Court gave a green light on Wednesday [September 12th] for the country to ratify Europe's new bailout fund, boosting hopes that the single currency bloc is finally putting in place the tools to resolve its three-year old debt crisis.
But the strings it attached to its endorsement of the ESM and a separate European pact on budget rules were less onerous than many had feared.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced plans last week to buy 'unlimited' amounts of government bonds issued by stricken euro states like Spain and Italy in order to reduce their borrowing costs.
That plan fuelled optimism in the markets, but it was contingent on the ESM coming into force. Following Wednesday's ruling, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he expected the rescue fund to be operational within weeks.
 Also Japan has decided to act by printing more money, something they have been doing for a very long time, in response to QE-3:
The Bank of Japan announced Wednesday that it would expand its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen in an effort to stimulate its economy as global demand slows.
The announcement comes less than a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest stimulus plan, and two weeks after the European Central Bank revealed its new bond-buying program.
Apparently this is not enough, "The Bank of Japan is ready to expand monetary stimulus again even after this month's action and may ponder new steps if necessary, board member Takehiro Sato said, warning of global uncertainties that could push the economy into recession".

Printing money devalues the currency of the nation that engages in such actions, and that in turn gives it an unfair economic advantage against other nations. This forces other nations to intervene and devalue their currency. It is a global race to the bottom.

What does all of this mean? This is very spooky stuff. The global economy is based on debt. Nations have been spending money that does not exist, and paying for this with creating money out of thin air for some time now. It is very much like a con artist that gets a loan and pays for that loan with another loan and so on. The game is rapidly approaching the end. The very next step for the Federal Reserve and just about every other central bank in the world is 100%, straight-up, Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe type money printing. This means that massive world-wide inflation, or some economic disturbance, is possibly not that far off. As the Dallas Fed President said central banks "are sailing deeper in uncharted waters". Now is the time to educate yourself and to prepare to avoid finding yourself in the situation found below. 

As noted in the book When Money Dies:
In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes was worth, to some, more than the family silver; a side of pork more than the grand piano. A prostitute in the family was better than an infant corpse; theft was preferable to starvation; warmth was finder than honor, clothing more essential than democracy, food more needed than freedom.

6 comments:

  1. This is how Obama accomplishes redistribution of wealth.

    It is how the German taxpayer's wealth is being redistributed to the rest of Europe.

    Unfortunately, it looks like taxpayers in both countries are totally cool with having their wealth redistributed.

    What this really is is governments seeing how long they can ride this out, hoping and praying for an economic turnaround that happens in spite of their socialist efforts to stifle it, and hoping they can kick this can a little farther down the road.

    Amazing that this kind of conduct can be tolerated.

    Good article.

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  2. First off, we should all know that none of us can actually have any true understanding of the calculations that go in to this sort of policy.

    It is interesting that the government has put so much effort in to making sure that the practice of accounting is as transparent and objective as possible. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles have been put together to provide all creditors and investors with as much symmetrical information about their financial positions as possible. Yet the government is not responsible to do the same. QE3 was done as quietly as possible. The government can do all the risky business it wants without any regulation. I'm so disgusted.

    ToeJamm

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  3. Governments are kicking the can down the road, and by doing this it will make the inevitable economic correction much worse than it otherwise would have been. I think they are buying time so that they can set up a system to deal with the social cohesion problems that will result from such a massive global economic problem.

    In Europe, we are seeing the creation of a new political union to accompany the monetary union. Which is happening exactly as foreseen by the people involved in creating the EU. There is a document that shows that it was know that a monetary union was led to a crisis that would help to bring about a political union. National sovereignty is being transferred from the individual nations to a central authority.

    The Fed's action has made it harder for the Chinese to ease monetary policy because of the pressure that QE puts on food prices.

    I would agree that nobody can have a full understanding of all the effects of policies like this. That is an Hayekian argument against actions such as this and central planning in general. But economic policy like this has been carried out before numerous times in the past and the end results were similar to each other. Like the old cliche says: history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.

    The national debt is much higher than the 16 trillion figure. This is why the government doesn't use GAAP: to hide the true size and scope of the national debt.

    Massive monetization of debt in the form of creating money is the endgame or final stage of the game.

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  4. It is also important to note that the SEC has complete oversight of all GAAP. The FASB writes the GAAP but it is not published with out SEC consent. This is a new policy that was put in place with recent scandals. The government slips in to take over a private practice.

    Toe

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  5. I am sure the IASB will be taken over by the UN.

    Here is a bright view from the futurist Kaku of what the future holds: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-the-american-futurologist-michio-kaku-a-857860-2.html

    "SPIEGEL: Professor Kaku, in your book you write about how we will be like gods in the future. Are you saying that our grandchildren will be gods? Isn't that a bit immodest?

    Kaku: Just think for a moment about our forefathers in the year 1900. They lived to be 49 years old on average and traveled with horse-drawn wagons. Long distance communication was yelling out the window. If these people could see us today with mobile phones at our ears, Facebook on our screens and traveling with planes they would consider us wizards.

    Kaku: Yeah. You will still have to go to the bathroom because our biology hasn't changed. But your toilet will have more computer power than a university hospital does today.

    SPIEGEL: The toilet as a supercomputer?

    Kaku: Your toilet will have a chip in it called a "DNA chip." It will analyze enzymes, proteins and genes for cancer. In this way we will be able to fight cancer long before a tumor even has a chance to develop. We will be able to also detect other illnesses early and fight them. But we will still have the common cold. There are at least 300 different rhinoviruses and you need to have a vaccine for each one. No company is going to do that, because it is going to bankrupt a large corporation to make a vaccine for each of them.

    SPIEGEL: What a defeat! Comfort us -- did you not just refer to the perfect body of Venus?

    Kaku: The nature of medicine will shift away from basically saving lives to perfection. We will be able to rearrange our own genome.

    SPIEGEL: Will we eventually be able to conquer death?

    Kaku: Eternal life does not violate the laws of physics, surprisingly enough. After all, we only die because of one word: "error." The longer we live, the more errors there are that are made by our bodies when they read our genes. That means cells get sluggish. The body doesn't function as well as it could, which is why the skin ages. Then organs eventually fail, so that's why we die.

    SPIEGEL: What can we do about that?

    Kaku: We know the genes that correct these things. So if we use genetic repair mechanisms, we might be able to repair cells so they don't wear out, so they just keep on going. That is as real possibility. We will also be able to regenerate organs by growing new ones. That can already be done now.

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  6. SPIEGEL: You claim in your book that we are the most important generation that has ever lived. Doesn't every generation think that?

    Kaku: Out of all the generations that have walked the surface of the Earth, we're the only ones to witness the beginning of the process of becoming a planetary civilization. We decide whether humanity survives.

    SPIEGEL: What do you mean by "planetary civilization?"

    Kaku: We physicists rank civilizations by energy. A Type 1 planetary civilization uses all the energy that is available on the planet. In a hundred years, we'll be Type 1. We're on our way there. We will control the weather. We will control earthquakes and volcanoes eventually. Anything planetary, we will control. Type 2 is stellar. We will control stars, like Star Trek. Then Type 3 is the entire galaxy, where we'll control the Milky Way galaxy.

    SPIEGEL: Hold on a second. We aren't even close to that now!

    Kaku: No, we are in a transition. We still get our energy from dead plants, oil and coal. Carl Sagan did a more precise calculation. He figured out that we're actually Type 0.7. So we're on the threshold of being Type 1. We will have two planetary languages, English and Mandarin. Look at the Olympics. That's planetary sports. Look at soccer, another planetary sport. The European Union is the beginning of a planetary economy, if it ever gets off the ground correctly.

    SPIEGEL: We are having a few tiny problems with that last one.

    Kaku: Well, nevertheless, when I look at the larger sweep of things, I see that we are already coming together. We're entering the birth of a planetary fashion and we are already seeing the birth of planetary culture. Democratization of the world marches on."

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