"Real gross domestic product...decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014 according to the 'third' [the first estimate was a 0.1% growth and the second estimate was a 1% contraction] estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2013, real GDP increased 2.6 percent." CNBC put a positive spin on the news: "The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly." Hopefully, that pans out. The dismal growth had been largely blamed on the weather. The weather almost certainly did have some impact of the the economy (I know that in Atlanta the city was shut down for several days), but CNBC points out that "while the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather". It is also interesting that this was the largest difference between the 2nd and 3rd estimate since 1976.
The economist John Williams posits that the GDP number put out by the BEA are significantly off due to the massive underestimation of inflation. John Williams provides an alternative measure of inflation and GDP numbers that uses the methodology that the government used before they made all of the changes in the 1990s to make inflation appear lower. Using these numbers inflation is around 8% and the GDP has been bottom bouncing after the sharp downturn in the 2008 recession.
The Federal Reserve has continued to taper, down from 85 billion a month to 35 billion a month. The market expects the Fed to end QE by the end of the year. The market also believes that the economy is picking up and is gradually getting better. Although QE might not end if the economy continues to contract. It is interesting that the economy started to contract when the Fed started to taper at the beginning of the year. To put the "end" of QE into perspective, you need to put the latest rounds of QE into the broader context of all of the QE programs: the Fed launched and ended QE 1, QE 2, and operation twist(?) while QE 3&4 are in the process of being "ended". Considering all the QE programs as one large program, QE has not ended since 2008. It is also better to think of QE as monetizing the debt as opposed to the euphemism QE. (What has happened to the debt that the Fed stopped buying? Maybe the ECB is picking up the slack for the Fed. The Fed did help bail out Europe.) Speaking of Europe, the ECB has launched NIRP or negative interest rate policy and is expected to launch QE in the not-too-distant-future.
As all the hipsters line up for the next IPA, Anheuser Busch is slowly buying up micro breweries across the United States. Big market brands like AB and MillerCoors now own approximately 18% of the craft beer market. As the craft beer market continues to be consolidated we'll start to see the fickle micro brew junkies scramble to find their new "fav flave". In the end, there will be no where to run and no where to hide.
We shouldn't be afraid of this. The beer will be the same except that it will be more accessible and cheaper. Large scale distributors will be able to scale the production and will not compromise the quality. AB's acquisition of Goose Island Brewery has already been stirring an uproar and rumors of boycott. Reactions like this are silly. Don't buy in to this Occupy crowd. Keep drinking the beers that you like.
Gay rights continue to advance at the expense of religious freedom. In February of this year the Arizona legislature passed a bill that would have provided legal protection for businesses and individuals who refused service to customers based on religious objections. They felt a need to do this because of several instances in other states where business owners were being forced by law to violate their religious beliefs. (This has previously been discussed here.) In the case of a New Mexico photographer who refused to provide their services to a gay couple's commitment ceremony, they were sued and the case made it to the state supreme court. In the words of a supreme court justice of New Mexico who ruled against the photographer, they "are compelled by law to compromise the very religious beliefs that inspire their lives". This bill that would have prevented this from happening in Arizona and was vetoed by the governor of Arizona after much opposition from outside groups such as the NFL who were threatening to move Super Bowl XLIX from Arizona to California if the bill was passed.
It also appears that if you are a CEO of a large company you no longer have the right to support the belief that marriage should only be between a man and a woman--in other words, affirming the definition of marriage that has existed for thousands of years. The CEO of Mozilla Firefox had to resign because he supported proposition 8 in California that reaffirmed the definition of marriage as being between a man and a woman. Mozilla said that it stands for diversity and equality and therefore can not have a CEO that supports marriage as being between a man and a woman.
As society's acceptance and support of homosexuality increases religious freedoms are decreasing. Eventually, holding and expressing beliefs against homosexuality will lead to you never getting a job, loosing your current job, and eventually imprisonment. Being arrested for speaking out against homosexuality is already a fact of life in some European countries. (NBA players are being fined for gay slurs.) In the not-too-distant future, a blog post such as this won't be allowed to be posted on the internet. This slow acceptance and submission to an ever encroaching tyranny by a society is how countries end up like the old Soviet Union and China as it existed under Mao. While the tyranny in those countries were brought about by violence, this new tyranny--and undermining of the foundations of our society-- is being advanced in the name of "love", "diversity", "tolerance", and other feel-good words. Who can be against love in all its forms and manifestations?
I will see Tool on March 6th at the Moda Center. These guys have awesome music. I think they are critical thinkers who are in touch with their own spirituality. Their music is so sophisticated and psychedelic. I know that there are some questionable themes in their music but I respect their approach and point of view.
This will be a check mark on my bucket list. I'll bring my bic.
Again, so many things to write about that it's overwhelming, and here's a topic on which the US can't do a great deal about, though certainly more than we're doing now. But, this video is so shocking and incredible that I became motivated enough to write about it.
In the Ukraine, a deal was in the works to tie Ukraine's economy more closely to the EU's, moving it further out of the 'Soviet' orbit. The pro-Russian government led by President Viktor Yanukovych nixed the idea, probably both because he was personally against it and also because of pressure from Putin, trying to keep a hold on the old Soviet Republics. Ukraine is probably one of the most important/strategic ex-Soviet Republic and would be a great loss to Russia for it to fall out of their sphere of influence.
The cancellation of the economic agreement with the EU provoked a large protest from ethnic Ukrainians (as opposed to Russian-Ukrainians). As many know, ethnic Ukrainians are primarily in the western part of the country and ethnic Russians are primarily in the eastern part of the country. Wikipedia has a great article breaking down the demographics of the country. As can be seen, ethnic Ukrainians still make up 77% of the population.
I think the government was surprised by the ferocity of the protest against Yanukovych's move. Protesters claimed central Kiev, taking control of the main square and many government buildings. In so doing, we see effective use of the shield wall in modern times
Note that the combatants are relatively evenly matched in this photo, with the police having better equipment, but not decisively so. So, long as the conflict is confined to clubs, shields, Molotov cocktails, and tear gas, the protesters can effectively fight the police. However, as the video shows above, once firearms are brought into the conflict, the shield wall becomes useless. But in the video, notice the bravery of the protesters. They're being shot, their brothers are being maimed and killed, and still they move forward. Would we have that kind of bravery in America? I don't know.
This shows that Stalin's brutal ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians from the eastern part of Ukraine has paid off, as we wouldn't even be having this discussion, this conflict wouldn't even be happening, if he hadn't done this, along with displacement of local populations and replacement with Russians all over the Soviet Republics.
Addendum:
The excellent website War Is Boring analyzes how this protest movement succeeded. I think their final paragraph had the main reason:
But if there’s anything that tipped the balance, at least for now, it’s the protesters’ willingness to fight. “I’m ready to fight for my human rights and my country, and the better life of my country,” a women’s brigade fighter told Al Jazeera. “Even to death.”
Not being intimidated and showing the bravery they showed in the video above showed they couldn't be cowed. That's been the difference, at least so far.
